How about them Bay Staters?
Politics is a strange animal. One minute you're cannon fodder, running in a hopeless election; the next minute you're answering to "Pardon me Senator, but..." Anyone in the Republican party who says they saw this coming is full of it. If the GOP had the slightest hope of winning in Massachusetts they would never have run a guy with nude magazine photos in his portfolio. Even Scott Brown probably didn't think he could win.
Ah, but in the ever-changing world of electoral politics there will always be constants:
No constituency likes being told who they must vote for.
Local and statewide elections are not national referendums. They are local contests.
Nothing is a sure thing.
If you're a political geek, you care about the "why" more than the "who" of the Massachusetts Miracle. Scott Brown ran a near-perfect campaign. His message would have been well received in California, Kansas or Pennsylvania. He convinced the Independent voters of Massachusetts that the country is moving too fast in a scary direction and that he could slow it down. Healthcare was a part, but not all of the debate. Brown avoided polarizing, third-rail issues. He affirmed a woman's right to chose and the rights of gays to marry in his state (by calling these issues "settled law" Brown avoids having to take a stand). He was skillful and he has Kennedy good looks (always a plus in Massachusetts). Aside from the negativity, Brown was brilliant. Mr. Brown is opposed to everything. No one in the GOP seems to be in favor of anything. No alternate ideas. No new proposals. Cap and Trade; bad. Alternatives; none. Obama healthcare; bad. Better ideas; none. Stim; bad. Better idea; no new taxes. How is that a better idea?
Brown had one more advantage... he was incredibly lucky. Make no mistake, luck is a better weapon than nude photos of your opponent.
Senator Brown was lucky in two ways. First he got to run against the dumbest, most inept candidate since Michael Dukakis. The Democratic cardboard candidate, Martha Coakley won a primary in December, thanked everyone for making her the heiress to the Kennedy legacy and went home to await her coronation in January. By the time she realized that she was about to get thumped it was too late. Barack Obama couldn't save her. Victoria Kennedy couldn't save her. Hell, the ghosts of all four Kennedy brothers couldn't resurrect her. Ms. Coakley is now presumably having a beer with Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani at the "What Happened" saloon.
Mr. Brown's second and greatest piece of luck was that he gained popularity so quickly and so close to the election that the Idiot Wing of the Republican Party couldn't get mobilized fast enough to sink his chances. Sarah Palin, who could have been counted on to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory couldn't find Massachusetts on a map. Michael Steele, Chairman of the GOP, wasn't about to detour his celebrity book tour into such hostile territory. Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity, Savage and the rest of the Tea Bag crowd probably saw Brown as insufficiently pure to merit their blessing. Naturally, that hasn't stopped all of them from taking credit for Brown's victory in the name of Anti-Omaba-ites everywhere.
As always, the President of the United States showed himself to be a stand-up guy and a class act. He went to Massachusetts last Sunday knowing that he was burning political capital in a lost cause. Bay Staters might like the President personally but they weren't about to let him sell them this tone-deaf tootsie. When it was all over, the President told Massachusetts that no decision on healthcare would be made until their new senator was seated. Not exactly the Karl Rove playbook.
Thankfully, the elections in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts happened before November 2010. With any luck, Democrats have learned that nothing is for sure. Congressmen and Senators will actually have to make their case to the voters. If healthcare is worth having, it's worth fighting for. This one may actually have to be decided on the issues. Sarah Palin need not apply.
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